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December 31, 2010
Happy New Year and thank you for reading Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. This is what you and your Realtor should know about the Las Vegas Valley real estate market this weekend. Getting REAL (Estate) in Vegas will be back on the Vegas Video NetworkJanuary 8th at 1 PM. The archive is up and running if you’ve missed an episode.
Summary: Available inventory remains stable at 16342 — but is that because of market conditions or the holidays? Like a TV drama, we have to wait until next week to find out! Time on market for available units continues to rise, so sellers must be patient and prepared to price aggressively. Banks are taking this advice to heart, as seen in the median price of bank-owned homes. This is depressing the rest of the market. The number of contingent and pending listings did drop fairly sharply this week, with declines in distressed and non-distressed properties. The reason is that few new contracts were signed, but over 700 pending contracts became final sales. Next week, we should have an official number of homes sold in 2010.
Other Information: It’s been another banner week for foreclosure and foreclosure fraud news. Perhaps you’ve already heard about Bank of America trying to start foreclosure proceedings on Christmas Eve despite the fact that the homeowner never missed a payment? Speaking of B of A, Allstate has joined the list of investors suing over investments in mortgage backed securities. In another similar case, a judge has ruled that a sample of the 368000 mortgages in question can be examined in detail rather than having to look at every single one. Here’s a nice summary of what we now know, and commentary on how robosigning effects those of us in non-judicial states like Nevada. Roughly 4.3 million homes are over 90 days overdue or in foreclosure, and some experts expect foreclosures to “spike” in 2011. Currently, foreclosures are on the decline, unless they aren’t. Mortgage modifications are down, as the number of people eligible for them has declined.
Mortgage rates are up, but still near historical lows. Do not be surprised if rates continue to rise in the new year. The Pending Home Sales index is up nationally, which means more homes are under contract and will soon be sold (locally this is not the case, but it means that short sales are being processed). The Case-Shiller index confirms that housing prices are down again. Professor Shiller himself thinks we have another 20% to drop nationally. Consumers and experts both agree that a housing recovery shouldn’t be expected until 2013 (how I hope this is a contrarian indicator!) Oh, and a cautionary tale, your home purchase isn’t final until all the paperwork is signed and the recorder’s office says it’s final! A lot of things can go wrong, so make sure your plans are flexible!
We did lose 13,400 construction jobs locally, but convention business is looking up for 2011. If you’ve got $25,000 casino chips, cash them in now; the Bellagio is getting rid of them after a recent robbery, and I would be shocked if other casinos did not follow suit. Also, please be aware that the Strip will be closed to traffic tonight at 6:30 for New Years Eve.
December 27, 2010
Alright, it’s after Christmas, and some of you have “live” Christmas trees. Now that the holiday is over (and the tree is starting to get a bit dried out), how do you dispose of it?
Well the answer is easy in Las Vegas: participate in the 9th annual Christmas tree recycling program at the Springs Preserve! From now until January 15, you can drop off your tree at any of over 20 locations around the valley for free (search for the nearest one here). If that doesn’t work out for you, call 1-800-Got-Junk, and they will pick it up for a mere $30 — they’ll even vacuum up all those fallen pine needles!
December 24, 2010
Happy Holidays and thanks for dropping in to read Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Perhaps you won’t spend Saturday touring homes, but here’s what you should contemplate about the Las Vegas Valley real estate market this weekend. Normally I talk about the figures live on the Vegas Video Network Fridays at 1 PM, but we are taking a break for the holidays. Our next broadcast will be January 7, giving you plenty of time to catch up on old episodes!
Summary: Available inventory continues to be in the mid-16k range, ending this week at 16364. However, median time on market for available units continues to creep up and is well over 3 months. For homes sold in the last 30 days, time on market before getting a purchase agreement is almost 6 weeks, and total time on market has crept to 4 months! List prices on bank owned units continues to drop, pressuring market prices downwards in general. The number of contingent and pending listings has finally dropped below 12,000, partly on seasonal issues — most people don’t spend the holidays house-hunting unless they have to — and partly due to banks working through the back-log of short sale requests. Median final sales price continues to drift below the support level we’ve enjoyed for well over a year under pricing pressure from foreclosures. These last two weeks of the year will see a tug-of-war when it comes to transactions closing: on one hand are the Holidays and the short work week that goes with them; on the other hand are sellers who want the property off the books by the end of the month, year, and quarter. This week we had a strong number, but what about next week?
Other Information: Mortgage rates dropped this week to 4.81%, but refinancings are down — partly due to lack of equity. While existing home sales rose in November, actual home prices dropped in October due to increased inventory (and the lack of a home buyer tax credit). Those are the national numbers, but local numbers confirm that our housing market “continues to slide.”
The media is starting to notice some of the issues surrounding non-judicial foreclosures, such as we have in Nevada. The New York Times had a piece earlier this week about some of the bank-initiated break-ins of homes that were not actually foreclosed on (or were mistakenly foreclosed upon). Nevada and Arizona State Attorneys General have filed suit against Bank of America; here are a few of the Nevada accusations. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has actually blocked new foreclosure regulations designed to protect homeowners from fraud in the process.
Remember last week that there wasn’t enough snow on Mount Charleston? This week there’s so much snow that some parts of the mountain are being evacuated due to risk of avalanche! At the other end of the valley, Henderson residents are concerned about a possible gravel pit operation (Henderson is historically industrial, a fact sometimes forgotten by residents of modern developments).
89: Fine, I Won’t Pick the Next Movie
December 22, 2010
As we recount many of our holiday traditions, this episode of the Living in Las Vegas Podcast reminds the viewer that when it comes to watching a DVD on Christmas day with your family, a film that features full-frontal male nudity may not be the right way to go. Show notes:
- Weather (raining) / LiLV Pool (rain catcher)
- LiLV Stuff
- Listener Line: 206.312.0105
- Sign up for Email Alerts (form found on right side of our website)
- Melissa passes her test!
- VEGAS VIDEO NETWORK Christmas Party
- Family Holiday Traditions
December 17, 2010
Happy Friday… Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. It’s the critical, no-spin data you and your REALTOR need to know before touring, listing, or making a purchase offer in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend. You can also watch me talk about the figures live on the Vegas Video Network Fridays at 1 PM. I’ll be giving you a very brief tour of the “South” neighborhoods of our MLS.
Summary: Available homes continue to be at a stable number, ending this week at 16417. Short sales continue to dominate our market. Looking at the year-over-year numbers, I was struck by the increase in very low price properties: more than double the number of properties under $50,000 (remember, these should be considered cash only), and more than double the number of single family homes between $50,000 and $100,000. This smells like a potential opportunity for a smart investor with plenty of cash. While the number of foreclosed properties is down from last week, it is up almost 1300 year-over-year. The number of contingent and pending listings did drop slightly, but remains just over 12,000. Closings continue to be a little light due to the Holidays; only people who have to move in December do so. The median sales price on closing homes did drop below the range we have been in for a year and a half, so I will be watching to see what happens to prices next.
Other Information: Nationwide, home prices dropped 1.9% in October, and new housing starts continue to flounder near all time lows. Mortgage rates continue to rise, with average rates reported at 4.83%-5.0%. Just for fun, check out this chart of global real estate prices since 1997!
November foreclosures dropped 21% from October, but this was mostly a side effect of several large lenders voluntarily freezing the foreclosure process; expect a jump after the first of the year as both the paperwork moratorium and any holiday moratorium programs end. Meanwhile, Bank of America is trying to reach a deal with holders of mortgage backed bonds that want their money back. Of course, I am also aware of stories such as B of A accidentally doing things like trying to foreclose on homes where the mortgage is current. Some banks are apparently trying to hurt your credit score if you are so bold as to ask for a copy of your actual mortgage documents. This sounds like something that can and should be disputed with the credit reporting companies. Speaking of the actual note, Alternet has a great article on MERS, how it created the robo-signing mess, and how it is cheating your local government in the name of “convenience” for banks.
Even though the Leading Economic Indicators rose, Nevada unemployment is up to 14.3%. However, the Cosmopolitan just opened 3000 hotel rooms; historically, each Vegas hotel room creates 2 jobs in the hotel/casino complex and an additional 2-5 jobs in the community. Nationwide, Hotel Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) is up 11.5%. In other local news, Vegas has been named the brightest city in the world, and there is a sledding ban on Mount Charleston due to a lack of snow.
December 14, 2010
I just saw this on Twitter, which lead me to a Las Vegas Sun article about a robbery that happened this morning at 3:50am at the Bellagio.
According to the article, a man in motorcycle garb walked up to a craps table, pulled a gun, and demanded chips. He was seen fleeing on a motorcycle, heading westbound on Flamingo.
Police think the robber is the same person who robbed the Suncoast casino (located in Summerlin) on December 9th (stole less than $20k).
88: Stealing Eggnog and Career Predictions
December 12, 2010
The sign of a great show is when Melissa gets mad at Scott within the first 3 minutes. Thus, today’s Living in Las Vegas Podcast is another huge success. Show notes:
- Scott’s Intro starts the show off with the WRATH OF MELISSA
- Weather (65 and stunning) / LiLV Pool (48?!?!)
- LiLV Stuff
- Listener Line: 206.312.0105
- Sign up of Email Alerts (form found on right side of our website)
- Costco Eggnog and receipt checking
- On the work front
- Studying for the SPHR
- Scott’s trip to San Francisco
- New show idea for the VEGAS VIDEO NETWORK
- Real Estate (Foreclosures are killing the value of our homes)
- Home for the Holiday
- The Lakes Festival of Lights
- The Whitney Villa Christmas Tree
- Donating toys
- Family Portrait
- Nutcracker
December 10, 2010
Welcome to Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. Here’s what you and your REALTOR should know before touring, listing, or making a purchase offer in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend. You can also watch me talk about the figures live on the Vegas Video Network Fridays at 1 PM. Today’s guest is Arvin Anderson of United Homes Xchange! He runs a fascinating business serving real estate investors, and he’s really excited to answer your questions.
Summary: Available units ticked up slightly to 16511, and predictably median prices went down on single family homes. Contingent and pending listings were up by a couple dozen — statistical noise when talking about over 12,000 units! Time on market for homes that closed in the last 30 days went down for the first time in many weeks. Rents remain stable.
Other Information: We’re hearing more and more stories of banks foreclosing illegally on homes they don’t even hold mortgages on! There is increasing evidence that these “unfortunate errors” and paperwork blunders are caused by massive schemes to circumvent the law. Foreclosed homes are of course a great concern locally. While some banks have chosen to halt foreclosures for the holidays, Bank of America has chosen to resume them. Fannie Mae does report that serious delinquencies are down.
I have been informed that condo financing will simply not be available after the first of the year; however, some builders still have financing available for projects under development. This includes some high rise communities. In any event, it is clear that it will be difficult to buy or sell condos for some years. Mortgage rates in general are at a 5 month high. You may remember Kari Phillips telling us that your actual interest rate depended on a lot of things including your credit score? Well HUD is investigating that practice as applied to FHA loans.
Earlier this week, MSNBC gave us an item on how to avoid buying a meth house, and I think it’s important reading for buyers. Another important item is on how “Generation Y” is changing the real estate market — and they outnumber the Baby Boom!
It’s so nice to have good news here: Strip gaming revenue was up 16% in October! Homes prices and sales were both up in November. More good news, a new transit center has opened in the Northwest Valley. Also, the world’s largest H&M store opens tomorrow, bringing several hundred jobs with it. Unfortunately, I have bad news too: J.P. Morgan is trying to force Henderson’s Inspirada development into bankruptcy.
87: Downtown, Why It Will Succeed (and How It Could Fail)
December 5, 2010
It’s been reported that Zappos is planning on moving their headquarters (along with 1000 additional jobs) to downtown Las Vegas (in the old City Hall). That got us to thinking, “How is downtown doing these days?” For what was suppose to be a shortened version of today’s Living in Las Vegas Podcast, we discover all the projects in the downtown pipeline, along with why the whole thing could (hopefully not) fail. Show notes:
- Weather (65 (ahhh…that’s better)) / LiLV Pool (40)
- LiLV Stuff
- Listener Line: 206.312.0105
- Sign up of Email Alerts (form found on right side of our website)
- Don’t miss Behind the Curtain
- Las Vegas Rock and Roll Marathon
- NFR (National Finals Rodeo)
- Listener Email (neighborhood suggestion for new Las Vegan)
- Downtown Las Vegas
- (Last minute valet parking tip)
This was suppose to be a short show. Huh.
December 3, 2010
It’s time for Friday Figures! All information from the GLVAR MLS system. It’s everything you really need to know before touring, listing, or making a purchase offer in the Las Vegas Valley this weekend. You can also watch me talk about the figures live on the VEGAS VIDEO NETWORK Fridays at 1 PM. Today’s guest is Traci Wozniak of Mesa Management. She’s an expert in HOA management, and she’s looking forward to your questions!
Summary: More signs of stability, available listings dropped slightly to 16368. It looks like my original forecast of stability around 15000 wasn’t as badly off as I feared. One small but encouraging sign is that we have fewer single family homes under $50,000 available. The number of contingent and pending listings locally does continue to drop (nationwide, it’s up). Furthermore, I am delighted to announce that we have fewer than 8000 contingent short sales. While the gap between median sales price and median list price did widen out this week, there was still less than a $3000 difference; this may be influenced by the fact that banks do not approve “low ball” offers on short sales.
Other Information: The latest and craziest news in the foreclosure mess is that some people are being foreclosed upon even though they have made all their payments! How can that be? By servicers deliberately applying outrageous late fees, and sometimes processing payments late to make sure they can charge you! One Federal Reserve Governor graciously says that there need to be “changes” in servicing. Meanwhile, Bank of America is trying to say that the sworn statements made in court by people who should know are mistaken. More judges are demanding that banks get their paperwork in order before foreclosing. It’s nice to see that bank regulators are finally talking about punishing banks for chronically breaking the law. Despite all this, the Federal Reserve is actually talking about getting rid of one of your key protections against fraudulent mortgages!
One thing I am watching is that the “deficit” commission is talking about changing the mortgage interest deduction: specifically they want to cap it to mortgages under $500,000, and eliminate the deduction on second homes. While this seems reasonable enough on the surface, it could cause homeowners to strategically default on modest homes in expensive areas (California, Seattle, New York City), and be devastating for families that choose to purchase a “college condo.”
Pending homes nationwide were up over 10% in October, but most experts agree that’s just a last gasp before the traditionally slow holiday season. As far as short sales go, some experts say that the HAFA program is going to be even worse than HAMP! One last thing about short sales, if you are in one, make sure you demand and get a “discharge letter” saying that you don’t owe the bank any more money! Some ex-homeowners are discovering the hard way that they still owe money to the bank — money they of course can’t afford to pay.
Locally we had 3.4% more Thanksgiving visitors than last year, good news by any measure.
